• @daydrinkingchickadee@lemmy.mlOP
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    -1024 days ago

    We’re talking about the average life expectancy of an empire. It’s a fairly straightforward calculation if one has all the data ready.

    • @silasmariner@programming.dev
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      3124 days ago

      It’s not really that straightforward though, is it? Firstly is it a mean or a median average? What counts as an empire? When do we date the rise and fall of specific empires? These are not questions with straightforwards answers. Would Hitler’s Germany count as an empire? How many Roman empires were there?

        • @minyakcurry
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          2124 days ago

          I wish more people understood statistics. Did you learn about moments?

            • What bit did you worry I hadn’t read? Was it an answer you posted in another thread, perhaps, that you’re talking about? I don’t believe there was anything in my reply that suggested I hadn’t comprehended anything relevant up to that point…

        • @AppleTea@lemmy.zip
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          1623 days ago

          Do you count the Byzantine as separate or the same as Rome?

          Your talking about structures comprising huge numbers of people across multiple generations. There is no clear “death”. Just the gradual shifting from one set of conditions to another. Pick any line in the sand, declare it to be the “end” of an empire, and you’ll still find people living under its rules, speaking the language, and using the currency well afterward.

          Hell, look at Britain. No longer the globe-strangling power that they were, but it’s still the same country with the same rules and government and money.

    • @essell@lemmy.world
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      2224 days ago

      Sure, we could also work out the average life expectancy of a mammal.

      But, would it really be useful, predictive or meaningful, given the variety and variability of the conditions the data emerges from?

    • @_g_be@lemmy.world
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      924 days ago

      It being an average number, pulled out of it’s context, doesn’t necessarily mean anything beyond just the average

    • fushuan [he/him]
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      118 days ago

      Average out of which number? There has not been enough empires in human history to get any kind of valid statistical conclusion.

      Also, the ancient egyptian empire lasted over 3k years, for you to get an average of 250y with such outlier you would need to include what, several 10y “empires”, or divide empires by ruler. Which would then make the conversation moot since each US president would be a new “empire”.

      The claim comes from John Glubb, and he used this chart to make the average out of… 11 data points!?! While missing tons of other ancient empires that lasted thousands of years?!

      This is the book where he makes such claim

      So to answer your comment, yeah math is easy. Impossible to reach such average number with all the data though, given that it was made with a wildly incomplete and incorrect data…

      • @daydrinkingchickadee@lemmy.mlOP
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        117 days ago

        the ancient egyptian empire lasted over 3k years

        No, not even close. The Egyptian Empire lasted from 1570 to 1069 BC.

        The claim comes from John Glubb

        No, there are others as I’ve already mentioned. The Changing World Order by Ray Dalio also arrives at the 250 year number. Cliodynamics and Structural-Demographic Theory suggests cycles of 200-300 years as well.

        • fushuan [he/him]
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          117 days ago

          Why are you selectively choosing to consider only the “new kingdom” part of the whole thing? Overall it’s from 3150 BC – 30 BC

          https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_Egypt

          I can also reach to whatever conclusion if I decide to ignore what doesn’t fit and modify what does to make it fit better. That’s wrong…