It seems a good time to remember, in amongst the rhetoric of election campaigns that all parties will keep house prices where they are.
The way back to affordability is 10-20 years of marginal house price growth, to enable housing to come into line with long term trends. Fluctuations that are radical pose radical problems for politics. So they opt for the sustained. This is what I think Australia’s (and others) future housing comes down to the (continued) debasement of currency through broad (stealth) taxation.
What a game.
I suspect voting preferences will swing around the late 30s quite bad :-/
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It’s a complex problem with no easy answers.
The tax benefits are what has made property a wealth creation scheme, so the problem will only get worse until that’s addressed. Generous CGT exemptions, and negative gearing.
Sadly Shorten demonstrated how little appetite Australians have for addressing that.
The liberal policy of tax deductible interest, and the Labor policy of a 5% deposit, will only make the problem worse with increased demand.
If a majority of Australians wanted to address this (they dont) then IMO the solution is land tax. Land tax on all properties with an exemption for your home, and Australian owned farm land.
Then use the revenue from this for social housing. Build low cost housing, allow tenants to have some kind of rent-to-buy scheme.
This way you’re making it less appealing to invest in property, and you’re presenting more affordable options, both of which will rationalise pricing over the coming decades.
It’s also important to remember that Dutton (and, admittedly, every other rich fucker in parliament), who owns 26 houses have zero interest in lowering house prices.
I suggest we also remember that prices are only half the story, wages have stayed flat for 50 years. Our wages have 1/3 the buying power of 50 years ago.
Join a union
In west aus at least professionals are getting paid way above the award. My consultancy is paying about 25% over the award to attract good candidates.
Truck drivers hauling grain are earning $50 an hour plus super, where that was $30 an hour in 2019.
These numbers aren’t “stagnant wages”.
Absolutely.
The populaces awareness of inflation taxation is what drives part of the cryptocurrecy fever. People have grown impatient again at being fucked over by banking policies.
Join a protest.
Penny auctions anyone?
How the hell are wages going to rise though. Everthing I see points to continued stagnation.
UNIONS
Unions are great and everyone should have one, but unfortunately there are some professions where unionisation is beyond the current imagination. Software engineers for example. They didn’t need one historically because wages were higher than many other professions, but that has changed over time due to an over supply of professionals. Its the kind of profession that encourages individuals to compete against each other for salary increases. I see many people doing unpaid overtime, partly because the field attracts people who work compulsively for reasons of professional pride.
I take it the down vote is coming from someone misinterpreting my points. Lack of unionisation in many industries is partly due to the fact that they are very individualised in nature (individual works hard to distinguish themselves amongst their colleagues and get an individual pay rise). I don’t know the best path forward to change this mindset, but we need to recognise it and talk about it.
The only way for wages to rise is through innovation. I have a R&D company. I can’t see any other way
I see it as more of a demand and supply issues. I’m an engineer and all my unpaid overtime over the last few years never resulted in an adequate pay increase because too many qualified people want my job, despite the value it added the company, which leading the market in a competitive new technology. The bargaining power isn’t there.
I see it as a supply and demand issue, too.
Supply of humans is so high that it has eroded bargaining power. Add in immigration and it is known that this has suppressed wage growth. Hence why I think in the 30s and beyond will be wild. The supply of humans will be reversed as global fertility trends continue. The WHO forecasted stat’s on world population from 2050-2100, and beyond, shows a decrease. If this plays out houses are going to be cheap as chips through this period, and all the ‘real estate empires’ will lose their shirt.
The way back to affordability is 10-20 years of marginal house price growth, to enable housing to come into line with long term trends. Fluctuations that are radical pose radical problems for politics. So they opt for the sustained. This is what I think Australia’s (and others) future housing comes down to the (continued) debasement of currency through broad (stealth) taxation.
Is this what you support or this you’re description of current policy?
I suspect voting preferences will swing around the late 30s quite bad :-/
Pardon?
That is my read of the current policies. And political mechanics (no matter which party).
If home ownership continues to drop at current rates, by 2030s there will be a majority of non-home-owner voters, who will swing the political sphere, as home owners have been doing.
