As much as I advocate for sensible, non-emotional investing via passive means, it’s hard to ignore:
the bear case where after a yield curve inversion, the stock market usually only crashes after the yield curve uninverts. This has yet to happen, which adds to the suspense, as it’s currently very inverted.
the bull case where CPI is noticeably heading back towards the Fed’s target of 2% (latest report at 3% y/y). The Fed has already said the last Fed meeting decision was a “skip”, implying that a hike is still on the cards for future meetings, however the market has been performing very positively over the past 2 months. Related to the bear case, the yield curve will uninvert once the Fed decides to cut rates instead of hiking. On the technical front, on a higher time frame, the monthly MACD had a bullish crossover for all broad-based equities indices. This could still be a FOMO rally, but so was the last 10 years (as the US market’s return was primarily driven by higher PE ratios rather than dividend yields or book value, compared to rest of the world where PE ratios are still relatively tame). For all we know, the Fed might pull off this “soft landing” shenanigan.
Well, I lied. If I just ignored the noise, and emotionlessly and periodically added to my investment portfolio come rain or shine, I would’ve ended up much better. The odds are in my favour if I just stuck to the plan.
Of course, this only comes up when market is up. Even crypto is up after some extremely favourable news yesterday. When the market is down, “oh syukor tak all-in lagi”.
As much as I advocate for sensible, non-emotional investing via passive means, it’s hard to ignore:
the bear case where after a yield curve inversion, the stock market usually only crashes after the yield curve uninverts. This has yet to happen, which adds to the suspense, as it’s currently very inverted.
the bull case where CPI is noticeably heading back towards the Fed’s target of 2% (latest report at 3% y/y). The Fed has already said the last Fed meeting decision was a “skip”, implying that a hike is still on the cards for future meetings, however the market has been performing very positively over the past 2 months. Related to the bear case, the yield curve will uninvert once the Fed decides to cut rates instead of hiking. On the technical front, on a higher time frame, the monthly MACD had a bullish crossover for all broad-based equities indices. This could still be a FOMO rally, but so was the last 10 years (as the US market’s return was primarily driven by higher PE ratios rather than dividend yields or book value, compared to rest of the world where PE ratios are still relatively tame). For all we know, the Fed might pull off this “soft landing” shenanigan.
Well, I lied. If I just ignored the noise, and emotionlessly and periodically added to my investment portfolio come rain or shine, I would’ve ended up much better. The odds are in my favour if I just stuck to the plan.
Of course, this only comes up when market is up. Even crypto is up after some extremely favourable news yesterday. When the market is down, “oh syukor tak all-in lagi”.